It was eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it happened in London, and once more versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
